Prediction-market trader

Juvenile-Hypothesis @juvenilehypothesis

Independent prediction-market trader. 3,858 lifetime trades settled on-chain.

Record

• Tracked since 2025-11-27 (281 days), 21 trades recorded
• Returns: week +0.1% · month -0.1% · 90 days -12.5% · 6 months +12.5% · 1 year n/a · all +121.9%
• Max drawdown -35.0% · Sharpe 2.04 · win rate 0% · data quality Good
• Source: Polymarket (on-chain) (Polymarket; typical delay 30 seconds)

Open positions

• PM-9AF4AA93AY · 4.9% · long
• PM-5AE264C7AY · 4.5% · long
• PM-71893B06BY · 3.9% · long
• PM-B969B9E6EY · 3.7% · long
• PM-78317A8E1Y · 3.5% · long
• PM-17BA5A7A0Y · 3.4% · long
• PM-F0AA26F04Y · 3.3% · long
• PM-1219CCE45Y · 2.9% · long
• PM-D4F01DE9BY · 2.8% · long
• PM-72A47CAD9Y · 2.6% · long
• PM-A8431DCD7Y · 2.5% · long
• PM-C32A544F6Y · 2.5% · long

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