Prediction-market trader

Active-Fraction @activefraction

Independent prediction-market trader. 9,055 lifetime trades settled on-chain.

Record

  • Tracked since 2026-02-12 (204 days), 166 trades recorded
  • Returns: week -6.7% · month -63.7% · 90 days -63.5% · 6 months -24.5% · 1 year — · all -34.2%
  • Max drawdown -79.0% · Sharpe -0.42 · win rate 4% · data quality Good
  • Source: Polymarket (on-chain) (Polymarket; typical delay 30 seconds)

Open positions

  • PM-7FF9B0DCCN · 26.0% · long
  • PM-077828FF7Y · 12.8% · long
  • PM-9D011A563N · 9.9% · long
  • PM-D662FBBF0Y · 8.5% · long
  • PM-7A52AC764N · 8.1% · long
  • PM-E5B260F55Y · 7.3% · long
  • PM-E4430198DY · 7.0% · long
  • PM-8DDD7F6F0Y · 6.4% · long
  • PM-E4D6102A0Y · 5.2% · long
  • PM-3832E581DN · 4.9% · long
  • PM-D65F7C0E0N · 3.9% · long

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